Let’s take a look at whether we ought to be banning refugees because we’re scared that terrorists will be sneaking in with refugees to terroristically kill Americans.
Actuarial Cost of Refugee Terrorism
The Cato Institute suggests (the Cato Institute! The Cato Institute isn’t exactly some bleeding-heart bastion of liberalism) that the risk of death due to refugee terrorism is about 1 in 3.5 billion per year.
The actuarial cost to the average American’s lifespan, then, is about a third of a second per year. Call the actuarial lifetime cost of refugee terrorism about thirty seconds. One quick stroll to your computer to vigorously type a bilious anti-refugee screed has enough cardiovascular benefit to add sixty seconds to your expected lifespan, so congratulations! The system works! Your vigilance has paid off!
Conclusion
If you’re scared of refugees, by all means type furious missives on social media, because the cardiovascular benefits of vigorously complaining will outweigh any statistical risk of dying from a refugee’s terrorist attack.
(Stoking fear of refugees might be a successful political ploy, but it sure ain’t mathematically alarming.)
(Actuarial assumptions are explained in more detail in Appendix 2.)